The Middle East Crisis and Its Impact on Africa’s Fuel Supply Chain
The escalating tensions in the Middle East have created a significant strain on Africa’s fuel supply chain, with many countries now relying on just weeks of refined petroleum products. This situation has been exacerbated by the ongoing conflict involving Iran, which has disrupted key maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global energy flows.
According to the International Energy Agency, approximately 600,000 barrels per day of petroleum products that were typically destined for Africa from the Middle East are now at risk due to slowed tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This disruption has forced African governments to seek alternative sources of supply, as concerns grow over the potential for wealthier nations to outbid them in an increasingly competitive global market.
A report by Bloomberg highlights how this crisis is revealing long-standing weaknesses in Africa’s energy infrastructure, particularly its heavy reliance on imported refined products. Years of refinery closures and underinvestment have left the continent vulnerable, with limited domestic refining capacity.
Kpler, an energy analytics firm, reported a sharp decline in petroleum product loadings, falling from 580,000 metric tonnes in January to 183,000 metric tonnes in February—a decrease of 397,000 metric tonnes or 68.4%. By March, these volumes had dropped to zero, marking a complete 100% decline from February levels. This dramatic shift underscores the severity of the disruptions affecting global fuel trade flows.
Rerouting of Fuel Cargoes and Global Trade Shifts
Industry tracking data indicates that several cargoes originally intended for Europe and Africa have been rerouted to Asia, where demand has surged amid the crisis. One such example is the vessel Brest, which was initially bound for Rotterdam after loading in India but changed course near East Africa and diverted towards Indonesia. This shift reflects the evolving dynamics of global fuel trade.
The ripple effects of these changes are already being felt across Africa, especially in East and Southern regions, where dependence on Middle Eastern fuel imports is highest. In South Africa, Jacob Mbele, Director-General at the Department of Mineral Resources, stated that the country is actively seeking new supply options. He noted that while the situation appears stable for the next few weeks, it remains fluid and subject to daily changes.
Structural Vulnerabilities and Economic Pressures
The crisis is further compounded by Africa’s declining refining capacity. Despite producing about seven percent of global crude oil, the continent has lost roughly a third of its refining capacity over the past two decades. This has left many economies heavily reliant on imports from the Middle East, a dependence now proving costly.
In East Africa, countries like Kenya, which consumes about 100,000 barrels of fuel daily and imports all its requirements, are particularly vulnerable. Kenya maintains only 21 days of fuel stock, leaving little room for disruption. Martin Chomba, Chairman of the Petroleum Outlets Association of Kenya, reported that the biggest suppliers are rationing product, and some distributors are experiencing stock-outs in rural areas.
Similarly, Ethiopia has urged citizens to cut down on fuel consumption as the government prioritizes essential services. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed emphasized that fuel use must now be directed toward “basic and essential needs,” reflecting the growing strain on supply.
Shifting Supply Sources and Regional Impacts
In West Africa, the supply gap created by reduced Middle Eastern and Indian shipments is increasingly being filled by Russian exports. Kpler data showed that about 480,000 metric tonnes of Russian diesel arrived in the region in February, with an additional 446,000 metric tonnes expected in March. This marks one of the highest inflows in recent months.
Meanwhile, S&P Global data revealed that Indian diesel exports to Southeast Asia have surged to their highest level since May 2025, driven by stronger pricing dynamics in Asian markets. Exports to Southeast Asia accounted for nearly half of India’s total diesel shipments in March, leaving African markets with dwindling access to traditional supply channels.
Nigeria’s Relative Buffer and Ongoing Challenges
For Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria, there appears to be a relative buffer. The Dangote Refinery, alongside smaller modular refineries, has positioned the country to meet a significant portion of its domestic fuel demand, estimated at 493,000 barrels per day. The 650,000-barrels-per-day facility, which began operations in 2024, is gradually ramping up production and is expected to provide surplus volumes for export.
However, even Nigeria is not entirely insulated, as the refinery still supplements crude supply with imports, reflecting broader structural challenges in domestic feedstock availability.
Long-Term Implications and Calls for Action
Energy experts warn that the ongoing crisis could have far-reaching implications for fuel prices and energy security across the continent. They argue that unless African countries accelerate investments in domestic refining capacity and diversify supply sources, similar shocks could trigger recurrent disruptions.
The current situation highlights a deeper vulnerability—one where global geopolitical tensions can swiftly translate into domestic economic pressures, particularly for import-dependent nations. As the Middle East crisis continues to evolve, the race for fuel cargoes is intensifying, leaving Africa’s energy security hanging in the balance.
Bahran Hariz adalah seorang penulis di Media Online IKABARI.
