William Klein, a former US diplomat with over two decades of experience in international relations, has worked in key roles at the United States’ embassy in Beijing from 2016 to 2021. He also served at the American Institute in Taiwan and on the US State Department’s China desk in Washington. His diplomatic career includes postings in South Asia, the Middle East, and the former Soviet Union. Currently based in the Berlin office of FGS Global, a strategic advisory and communications firm, Klein provides insights into complex global dynamics.
What Should We Expect from Trump’s Visit to China?
Since the Busan summit in October 2023, there has been a truce in the US-China relationship, though it is not an armistice or peace treaty. Both sides have a shared interest in preventing further deterioration. The most significant outcome of President Trump’s visit to China would be reinforcing their mutual interest in containing competition and avoiding escalation.
Expectations for the visit are modest, but it remains important for the trajectory of US-China relations. Senior-level engagement is crucial to maintaining stability and predictability, especially given the current climate of distrust and competition.
If the visit takes place, it could be the first of several meetings between the two leaders this year, signaling a commitment to stabilizing the relationship. This would send an important message that both sides are willing to work together to make the relationship more predictable.
Impact of the US Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs
President Trump has consistently used tariffs as a key element of his foreign policy. The recent Supreme Court ruling has changed the tools available to the president, requiring a more predictable and transparent process for implementing tariffs. While this may seem like a setback for Trump, it actually gives China more time to influence the US administration’s decisions.
China can now prepare for potential retaliatory measures, lobby US interests, and negotiate more favorable outcomes. This shift in the tariff process could lead to more strategic interactions between the two countries.
Challenges in Negotiating the Visit
One of the biggest challenges in preparing for the visit is reaching agreement on the outcomes and how they will be communicated. Disagreements over protocol often get media attention, but these are usually resolved. However, the challenge lies in agreeing on the language of the statements and how each side will present the results to their citizens and the world.
Historically, the US and China attempted to draft joint statements outlining agreed outcomes. Over time, this approach became difficult, leading to separate but coordinated statements. Now, each side issues its own interpretation, resulting in different characterizations of the meetings.
Dynamics Between Trump and Xi
Trump and Xi share a respectful relationship, characterized by mutual understanding of each other’s power and influence. Despite the tension, the risk of a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait remains low because both sides understand the stakes involved.
Impact of Trump’s Strikes on Iran
Events in the Middle East are moving quickly, making it difficult to predict the long-term impact on US-China relations. China views its relationship with the US as more significant than its relations with Iran. While the conflict with Iran may deepen Chinese distrust of US intentions, China still needs a stable and predictable relationship with the US.
Trump’s Foreign Policy Approach
Trump has a unique political style that emphasizes tangible, measurable outcomes. He focuses on the economic and commercial relationship between the US and China, seeing the trade deficit as a sign of a bad deal. This perspective shapes his approach to tariffs and manufacturing.
Diplomatic Input in Policy Formation
While no president directly consults diplomats on the ground, their input contributes to policy formulation. In the first Trump administration, diplomats had a direct line to the president, influencing policies such as the fentanyl scheduling and the treatment of Chinese students in the US.
Use of Rare Earths as Leverage
The use of rare earths as leverage against US tariffs was a surprise to the US. China has historically used economic leverage for political purposes, but this was the first time it was deployed against the US at an acceptable cost to itself. This signals a new level of assertiveness from Beijing.
Risk of Military Conflict in the Taiwan Strait
Despite deep differences over Taiwan, both sides have an overlapping interest in preventing military conflict. The risk remains low due to the recognition of the high costs involved. However, the space between their red lines has shrunk as Chinese military capabilities grow and distrust increases.
US Interest in Tensions Between China and Japan
The US expects China to stand by its Japanese ally. China is likely to continue diplomatic pressure on Japan while avoiding steps that test US commitments under the US-Japan alliance.
Europe’s Strategic Dilemma with China
Europe faces a strategic dilemma with China, balancing economic openness with the need to protect against growing Chinese economic clout. The EU is likely to erect more trade and investment barriers to Chinese companies, leading to more friction in relations with China.
Strategic Autonomy in Europe
The concept of “strategic autonomy” is being discussed in Europe, but it is unlikely to result in standalone European value chains. Instead, it will be more of a political process, with efforts to compete with both the US and China in selected technologies.
Greenland and Transatlantic Relations
Trump’s attempt to acquire Greenland has deepened distrust in Europe, raising questions about the future of transatlantic relations. However, the US and Denmark are expected to find common ground on security interests in Greenland.
Advice for Multinational Firms
Corporate leaders must integrate geopolitical thinking into their strategic planning. Understanding supply chain dependencies and mitigating risks is essential in today’s globalized world. Companies are diversifying supply chains and rethinking their strategies to address geopolitical challenges.
Bahran Hariz adalah seorang penulis di Media Online IKABARI.
